Consumer spending is expected to increase 3.6% this holiday season compared to last, according to Kurt Salmon analysis of economic and spending data.

While consumers continue to say they’re uncertain about the global economy, their intent to spend this holiday season, coupled with modest improvements in key economic indicators, suggests solid sales for U.S. retailers.

Sales in key holiday segments—clothing, electronics, sporting goods and toys—are expected to outpace last year’s performance and drive the bulk of end-of-the-year improvement in consumer spending.

“We see a quiet momentum building—with good weather and no scary headlines, we could see 4% growth during the holidays,” said Todd Hooper, a Kurt Salmon retail strategist. “Consumers have gotten used to the current economic uncertainty and people with jobs are ready to notch up spending.”

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3 November 2011